Almerimar Today

Coronavirus 13 May 2020

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR WEDNESDAY 13 MAY 2020 - DAY 59 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Spanish prime minister looking to extend lock down for another month (rather than in two 2 week chunks)

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/13/strategy-change-for-spains-sanchez-as-he-negotiates-with-congress-to-extend-state-of-alarm-for-another-month/

Decision on whether Málaga and Granada provinces go to phase 1 due on Friday 15 May 2020

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/13/spains-ministry-of-health-to-decide-whether-granada-and-malaga-move-to-phase-1-by-friday/

Not too long ago there was only one virus case in the Poniente hospital. I understand that there are now no cases. Or at least there were none yesterday. A little bit of good news.

https://www.lavozdealmeria.com/noticia/3/provincia/193277/el-hospital-del-poniente-sin-pacientes-con-covid-19-ni-en-planta-ni-en-la-uci

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Wednesday May 13

The scenario marked four days ago is confirmed. The weekly internal cadence is also repeated.

The cases repeat for the third day below 500 daily infections. Today, 439 (426 yesterday). The multiplication rate drops again a little, to 1.009. Very good signal for the control of the final phase of the first wave, which places it in an area where communities can fully monitor all new cases, and not just serious ones.

A new order has been issued for the autonomous communities to follow up on cases in this new phase, Order SND / 404/2020, of May 11. The strategy to be followed in Spain ?: early detection: “Once the most complicated moment of the crisis has been overcome and now that the different territories are already beginning to advance in the different phases provided for in the Plan for The Transition to a new normality, approved by the Agreement of the Council of Ministers of April 28, 2020, it is necessary to adapt and strengthen the information systems for epidemiological monitoring and surveillance, so that early detection of any case can be carried out that it can have an active infection and that, therefore, it can transmit the disease ”. This approach is translated into article 5 of the order that any suspected (symptomatic) case must be subjected to a PCR test within 24 hours. And that information is added and transmitted to the Ministry of Health. BOE access here.

In other words, Spain renounces the contagion contact tracking system, at least as a legal and formal requirement. Personally I find it very puzzling and dangerous. My hope is that many autonomous communities go one step further and do this process of tracing contacts to identify asymptomatic cases, since everything indicates that they are also contagious.

With respect to the distribution of cases by autonomous communities in the last 4 days, the rate per 100,000 inhabitants in all communities with high figures falls (Castillas, Navarra, Catalonia). In Aragon it remains stable.

184 deceased. Rise with respect to data from Monday and Tuesday, which confirms the weekly rhythm. It does not exceed the 200 barrier, so it remains at the new base this week. The multiplication rate remains at 1.024.

Lock down special - old photos of Almerimar - item 23 - Roy & Joy Dobney

Item 23 in the lock down series of old stuff comes from Roy & Joy Dobney.

Coronavirus 12 May 2020

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR TUESDAY 12 MAY 2020 - DAY 58 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Golf course re-opened yesterday

Jacqui and played 9 holes today. The golf course is in good nick.

You can see more photos from today in the Gallery.

14 day quarantine to be introduced in Spain for international travellers from Friday 15 May 2020

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/12/breaking-spain-to-introduce-mandatory-14-day-quarantine-for-international-travellers/

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Tuesday May 12

After the good trend data for the weekend, there was an expectation of how much the data would be corrected upward. They are good because they maintain and reinforce the downward trend.

I have commented other times that I consider that the reference variable to calibrate the exit from the first wave of the crisis is the trend in infections. The rest of variables, deaths, ICU, hospitalizations, are tragic legacy of the explosion of cases in March, but they are marked by the dynamics of the epidemic. Unfortunately, they are already “written”, due to the fatal nature of this disease, once control of the hospital emergency has been resumed. On the other hand, if we have 500 cases instead of 2,000, we are ensuring the drop in deaths in the coming weeks.

Well, the trend in new infections is really well focused. 426 cases today. Four days below 700. It gives a strong push to the multiplication rate, which drops to 1.010. It's already 1.01! Total cases have increased by 1% in the last 4 days. A month ago it was 1.13. Two months ago, at the start of the climb, it was 4.4! The cases were multiplied by four every four days.

Starting today, I add a detailed graph of the number of daily cases because, fortunately, the evolution no longer looks good in the full graph, with that peak of 9,222 daily cases from March 31.

As for the distribution of cases registered in the last four days, the weight of Catalonia falls sharply in total cases, from 36.4% to 30.7% because it is released from a very bad day in which it accumulated more than half of new cases.

If we look at the numbers of cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last four days, Catalonia manages to go up to 8.1 when four days ago it was almost double. If we compare the situation today with that of four days ago for the communities with the most cases, Catalonia, Navarra, Castilla y León, La Rioja and Madrid improve, Castilla La Mancha and Aragón are stable

176 deceased (+53). Fourth day below 200. Except for a brief rebound in the next three days, it is likely that we are already heading towards the low of the 100 daily deaths. The death rate at 1.024.

Lock down special - old photos of Almerimar - item 22 - John Woodman

The latest item is from John Woodman.

Coronavirus 11 May 2020

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR MONDAY 11 MAY 2020 - DAY 57 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Monday May 11

Yesterday's step down data is reinforced today. The risk that yesterday's data worsened today has not been met. We will see how much they are corrected with the data for Tuesday and Wednesday.

123 deaths reported today, 20 fewer than yesterday. New daily minimum in the lowering phase. It pushes significant drop in the multiplication rate, to 1.026.

The Ministry of Health announces 373 new cases (-248), again in the minimum area, in figures that are already manageable so that the autonomous communities can apply a true strategy for tracking positive contacts. The current expansion profile of the epidemic can be considered even lower if we consider that a significant percentage of positives are from health professionals. Yesterday, 42% of positives (265 cases) were from that group. In other words, it is not a matter of free contagion on the street, but of clearly defined foci.

The mismatch between total figures and new cases is again very large today, since it has included 2,721 "old" positives from Catalonia not reported so far. In the note they indicate a concise "the historical series will be updated in the coming days" to account for the mismatch.

Another novelty in the delivery of data by the Ministry of Health is that they finally add the positive results for antibody tests. There are 40,707 so far, which increases the number of total positives to 268,143. It is true that it is convenient to make the distinction between the two cases, since in the positives with antibody tests there are people with the virus that is no longer active, while all the positives with PCR correspond to people in active contagion.

The Autonomous Communities that have identified the most additional positives with the antibody tests are Castilla La Mancha and Castilla y León, while the Canary Islands does not appear to use this type of test.

As a percentage of the total number of tests carried out, the communities that have used the antibody tests the most are Murcia, Navarra and Castilla La Mancha.

Possible update on times for doing stuff in Andalucía (still waiting for confirmation)

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/10/starting-on-monday-children-and-pensioners-in-andalucia-enjoy-new-timetable-for-walks-to-avoid-hottest-hours-of-the-day-as-temps-in-costa-del-sol-soar/

Lock down special - old photos of Almerimar - item 21 - Doug Kemp

Item 21 is a photo of the golf course from Douglas Kemp.

I wonder if it was as windy back then as it is now.

Coronavirus 10 May 2020

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SUNDAY 10 MAY 2020 - DAY 56 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 0 HERE IN ALMERIMAR - PHASE 1 STARTS TOMORROW IN ALMERÍA)

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 10

Today the forecasts are also confirmed. Data from cases in the minimum area and the number of deaths for the first time below 150.

If the trend is repeated again, tomorrow and the day after, the figures will be somewhat worse. It is puzzling, because these patterns are not due to the actual evolution of the epidemic but to the way of accounting for it. As a citizen who does not know how to detail the accounting and registration system, it seems puzzling to me that after eight weeks the weekend effect continues to occur.

621 cases reported in the last 24 hours. 17 more than yesterday. The minimum contagion zone is maintained. The multiplication rate returns to 1.018.

Taking into account the cases registered in the last 4 days, Catalonia continues to be the most affected in total cases (almost 50% of all Spain). Madrid and Castilla y León contribute another 30% of the cases. In cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the most affected communities are Castilla y León, Cataluña and Navarra.

143 deaths registered in the last 24 hours. 36 less than yesterday. It is the minimum since March 18. The multiplication rate drops from 1.034 to 1.030, which is the level it reached four days ago. 26,621 deaths in total.