CORONAVIRUS

The article here on the La Voz de Almería sites has details of yet more cases discovered in the El Ejido area in the last 24 hours.

Read More for a Google translation of the article.

The article here on the La Voz de Almería site has details of 31 new cases in the last 24 hours in the province of Almería.

With three more in the El Ejido area.

Read More for a Google translation of the article.

The article here on the Ideal site has details about a change in policy about wearing masks in the region of Andalucía.

It will be interesting to see if there are any circumstances that are exempt from this policy. The Google translation of the article says "mandatory at all times, (except at home)".

Read More for a Google translation of the article.

UPDATED: 14:45, 11 July 2020 Here is an English version from the Olive Press site. Apparently they are optional for sports activities.

7 more cases of coronavirus reported in the province of Almería. With 2 outbreaks underway in the Poniente region (our area). These have 6 and 14 people involved. I am guessing one of them might be the one involving the people associated with a business in Adra.

So says the article here on the La Voz de Almería site in the story from today here.

Keep safe.

UPDATED: the story here  on the Almería 360 site has details has more details from yesterdays count. 17 in the province yesterday. 10 in the Poniente region. 7 in Roquetas, 3 in El Ejido and 2 others (Berja and Alcolea).

The article here on the Diario de Almería site has some details about the recent coronavirus outbreak in Adra.

Read More for a Google translation of the article.

The World Health Organisation doss not rule out airborne transmission of coronavirus. The article here on the Olive Press site has details.

So it is perhaps probably safer to try try to avoid crowded indoor spaces if you can.

There is an interesting article here on the El País in English site. About testing for antibodies.

I guess that this is a sign of things to come. A local lock down in Catalonia.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-spain-puts-200-000-people-in-catalonia-back-into-lockdown-as-cases-rise-12020938

The article here on the El Pais in English site has details of the first trials of the Spanish coronavirus app.

You can see more details here on the Olive Press site.

I spotted the chart above on the Almería 360 site. The red figurs are new cases. The figures below are the number of people who have recovered from the virus.

Another step in the new normality

This morning I am going to be walking around town taking some more photos for the Memorias de Almerimar then and now series of photographs. The first time I have done this for quite some time.

Euromomo excess death stats for last week

Info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Wednesday June 24

Two new deceased are reported.

Predictably, the number of reported cases rises to 334, from 248 yesterday. These are figures in the intermediate zone with respect to the daily data for the last two weeks.

In the graph of daily cases we now add what part of them corresponds to the category "Diagnosed the previous day". Those diagnosed in the previous day are the data that the press usually transmits daily, but as can be seen, they only correspond to between 20 and 60% of the number of cases identified. As we explained yesterday, now that we follow the evolution after the first wave, it is interesting to see the evolution of all the new cases.



The multiplication rate now stands at 1.14, by 1.15 yesterday (remember that this is a new estimate of the rate, with the cases accumulated as of June 4).



Of the 2,403 cases diagnosed in the last 7 days, Health claims that only 254 (10.6%) are cases of recent infection, with onset of symptoms in the last 7 days. In spite of everything, they are 100 more than those that were identified in the previous week. In addition to Catalonia and Madrid, which continue to account for 50% of all new infections in Spain, the communities that have increased new infections this week are Andalusia (from 6 to 24), Aragón (from 5 to 22), Navarra (from 2 to 13) and the Basque Country (from 7 to 14).

We attach the data table for the day.

Info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Tuesday June 23

Starting today, I am launching a new selection of data and a way to present it, because I consider that we are already in a new post-epidemic stage, so I believe that the focus should not be on a trend compared to the past, but rather an evolution of this trend from the new situation. The aim is to better gauge to what extent the situation is controlled after the first wave.

Yesterday it showed the statistics that reflect that the cases in weekly rhythm have already stopped decreasing for 10 days. Specifically, on June 10 the minimum was reached in the statistics of total cases detected in a week, as shown in the graph. That day was the first and only time in the entire crisis below the 2,000 cases declared in a week (1,954). This figure corresponds to the total official cases announced by the Ministry of Health less the total cases from a week before.



As of today I take as a reference of daily cases the difference between the official total cases of the day minus those of the previous day. I stop taking as a reference the figure of “Cases diagnosed in the previous day”, since this figure takes into account less than 40% of the total cases diagnosed.

Throughout the crisis I have used the number of daily cases that lowers the real total figure because it is what both the Ministry and the press report as “daily cases”. However, the most real information on the situation is that of the new cases declared, even if they were not diagnosed on the previous day. I did so to join the official communication of the Ministry and because it was a figure that followed similar criteria throughout the first wave. In the current follow-up pass what matters is to be aware of the total cases that are detected.

The total new cases of the last day are 248, by 232 yesterday and 334 two days ago. It is not a bad number because it corresponds to the first day with no weekend effect. However, we may see growth in the figure tomorrow.



In tune with this new restart, the multiplication rate of total cases has been activated not since the beginning of the crisis, but since the day the trend has no longer reduced cases. Recall that the multiplication rate is the result of dividing today's total cases with those of 4 days ago. The result obtained answers the question "How much have the total cases multiplied in the last 4 days?". Now the “total” cases are no longer 246,752, but are the cases since June 4 (7 days before the trend change). From that day until June 23, a total of 6,426 new cases have been declared. The number of “new total” cases are in the summary data table.

This leads the multiplication rate to stand at 1.15: total cases have increased by 15% in the last 4 days. The evolution of the multiplication rate shows a controlled evolution for the moment, since it is reduced from the 1.3 zone 10 days ago.



The table of total data includes in the fourth column of results the series "Total cases 1st wave". This shows the number of total cases that had been reached in March, in the same number of days since the 300 total cases were reached. In the first wave, 44,206 new cases were added, down 6,426 now. The difference in the spread of the coronavirus is actually much greater since in March the test was only performed on rave cases, whereas now in June the vast majority of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. They are two different worlds at the moment.

 

Note: Now we have "new normality" I will no longer be counting days in lock down. I will however continue to publish coronavirus stats at the moment. Plus any other coronavirus information I think might be interesting.

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Sunday June 21

In the new stabilized system for reporting deaths, today a person is declared dead with coronavirus, by 7 yesterday and two on the first day of recovery in the series. Therefore, the low mortality rate at the end of the epidemic is maintained.

Although these are already validated and consolidated data, it is found that despite everything, they should not be considered as definitive. The Ministry of Health itself in its detail graph of the daily deaths in the last 14 days modifies the figures given two days ago with those reported today, for data between June 13 and 17 (see comparative graphs). Consolidation will not prevent us from new surprises, it seems.



High number of infections diagnosed in the last day taking into account that it is the weekend and that the number of tests practiced in the surveillance process falls greatly. They are 141, by 134 yesterday and 154 on Friday. Third consecutive day with high numbers of contagion in Aragon (today 33, yesterday 18, 25 on Friday)



Returning to the question of the number of daily deaths that had been suspended for 25 days, some pointed out that despite everything, the information was given on "Deceased with death date in the last 7 days." Here it has been insisted that this figure corresponded not to the actual total deceased, but only those with whom the complete individual record was kept. Fernando Simón did not help much to clarify this ambiguity, and when asked, he used to affirm that there could be some more to be accounted for but that the available information gave a useful trend of the situation. As a consequence, most of the press gave that number of deaths in the last 7 days as the real number.

Well, the reality of the situation had very little to do with the number of deaths that was published in the last 7 days, since May 25. Now that we have the daily deaths data, we can reconstruct the real number and show the difference between the two series.

Sanidad was giving during these more than three weeks of blackout a very stable figure of 35 to 100 deaths in the last week. The reality is that in late May the actual weekly figure was 400, from 250-300 in early June and it has only been in the last three days that coupling between the two series occurs.



Thus, in the initial phase of the information blackout, the only official public figure that was given only included 13% of the actual deaths. It has been covering only 20-40% of actual deaths during the entire period, up to full adjustment in recent days.



Did you help inform the population that from Health this partial death rate was given? No, he misinformed.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SATURDAY 20 JUNE 2020 - DAY 97 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 3 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Friday June 19

At last!! After 25 days, we finally closed the transition phase without any information on the daily evolution of the deceased.

The Ministry of Health has finally been able to show its reconstructed series of the daily evolution of the deceased by date of death and not by notification in its internal system. The external global result hardly changes; it was a simple readjustment of data between dates. So we insisted that it was a pity that death reporting had been suspended at an interval with the old system because we could have followed and accompanied the end of the epidemic.

This is the graph of the deceased newspapers in this 25-day window that we have had without official data via the Ministry. It is a total of 542 deceased. To this figure we must add another 750 that correspond to death on an earlier date, but that were not counted in the last unfrozen figure that occurred, on May 26, with 27,117. With these additions, the official recorded death toll stands at 28,315.



It is not a radical change in the total death toll. Because all this blocking of figures was not to add up the numbers of deaths in residences that had not been tested, as some erroneously predicted.

The adaptation of the official figures to the most real figures and closest to those of excess mortality (43,000 deaths) will be done progressively in the future, as Fernando Simón has promised, but not in the short term.

The death toll in the week prior to the cut of information stood at an average of 70 daily deaths. In the first week of the blackout, the average moved around 40 deaths; the following week it experienced another drop, to 25. The following one moved at 10-15. And in recent days it is below 10 every day. According to official data, yesterday was the first day since March 3 with no deaths. Yes, exit the epidemic in its mortality aspect.

This is the largest series of daily deaths, to appreciate the evolution of the last 25 days.



Output that is reflected in the multiplication rate. When the news blackout started, the multiplication rate was 1.005. Today, for the first time, the rate stands at 1.000! We must add a new decimal to see that it is not yet that exact 1 (there have been 11 deaths in the last 4 days; it is required that they be 0 deceased in that interval).



154 cases today (+11), with relevant numbers of cases in Andalusia (18) and Aragon (25). The multiplication rate by 1.002.



And once normality in data communication is recovered, we can share the table again.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR THURSDAY 18 JUNE 2020 - DAY 95 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 3 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Weekly euromomo excess deaths statistics

Here are the euromomo excess deaths charts for up to week 23. I have included a map of data across Europe, plus details for Spain, Italy and the UK.

Things to note are:
- a recent upturn in excess deaths in Spain
- the longer tail of excess deaths in England has now reached a low level

Please note that this based based on preliminary data that is subject to future corrections.

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

NOTE: He continues to be unhappy with the lack of central reporting of deaths in Spain

Google translation:

Data Thursday June 18

Yesterday I did not write anything because there is nothing to say. Today there is nothing to say either, unfortunately.

It is 24 days without the Government being able to rebuild the official death toll. 24 days in which the population does not know the daily evolution of the last part of the epidemic. Invisible deceased, in the middle of the 10 days of official mourning. It is simply a crisis communication disaster.

143 cases today, like yesterday (141). The foreseeable and anticipated rise in cases with respect to those reported on Sunday and Monday, which were pure effect over the weekend due to the drastic drop in tests carried out. In other words, at the moment in Spain we do not have major outbreaks of regrowth, as they have experienced in Germany or Portugal.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR WEDNESDAY 17 JUNE 2020 - DAY 94 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 3 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

NOTE: He continues to be unhappy with the lack of central reporting of deaths in Spain

Google translation:

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR TUESDAY 16 JUNE 2020 - DAY 93 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 3 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

NOTE: He continues to be unhappy with the lack of central reporting of deaths in Spain

Google translation:

Still no data on the deceased newspapers. It is now three full weeks without the Spanish citizens knowing about the epidemic situation, like the international community.

40 new cases of contagion reported. As expected, again low today but probably not representative, since the weekend effect is completed today.

Just a few words about what is happening with golf in Andalucía

To start with a bit about golf in Almerimar. The course here opened some time ago. Playing 18 holes on the Master (1&2) summer course layout. With the Classic (Master 3) 9 holes still closed. The course is in very good condition. Although the greens are still very firm. Hopefully they will soften up after they are hollow tined in August.

There are no yardage markers on the course. Also, the flags have something fitted to the bottom of them so the balls do not drop all the way in to the holes. Plus there are no rakes in the bunkers. With a local rule that you can place your ball in a bunker within a club length (no nearer the hole). As people cannot tidy up bunkers that well without rakes.

I have seen on the internet that Alborán has started to schedule some official competitions for later this month and July. Mainly for local players to take part I guess. Also, the Andalucía Golf Federation has started running competitions again. For example the entry list for their first senior competition opens tomorrow. I think this is in Jaen.

As yet, the golf hotel and clubhouse at Almerimar are still closed. My guess is that they could re-open either later this month or perhaps in July. Once we are settled in to the "new normal" state in Spain.

I guess we will have to wait and see. As if a second wave of infection occurs who knows what might happen. Here and elsewhere in Spain.

Bars, restaurants, shops and businesses in Almerimar

I think that the majority of bars, restaurants, shops and businesses in Almerimar are now back up and running. I have to admit that Jacqui and myself have only been out to a restaurant once since they started to re-open some time ago. We are being very cautious about things at the moment.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR MONDAY 15 JUNE 2020 - DAY 92 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 3 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

NOTE: He continues to be unhappy with the lack of central reporting of deaths in Spain

Google translation:

Data Sunday June 14

Today's information is of little relevance. We do not have data on deceased, and it was logical that they did not publish it on the weekend. And the case data is not very representative due to the clear weekend effect.

45 cases are reported, but the drop is due to the sharp reduction in the number of tests performed on Saturday and Sunday, so it is not significant information on the situation. Tomorrow we should have low numbers again, and on Tuesday we can recalibrate the situation.

This graph that provides Health on the tests carried out within the framework of the Surveillance program shows the systematic drop of tests on Saturday and Sunday. Now it is not worrying, since the vast majority of cases are not serious.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SUNDAY 14 JUNE 2020 - DAY 91 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 3 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Only 34 active cases of coronavirus in the province. With only 2 in our area (one in Roquetas and one in El Ejido)

https://www.lavozdealmeria.com/noticia/3/provincia/195511/los-34-casos-de-coronavirus-que-siguen-activos-en-almeria-municipio-a-municipio

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

NOTE: He continues to be unhappy with the lack of central reporting of deaths in Spain

Google translation:

Data for Saturday June 13

No update of deceased data, foreseeable for being weekend.

130 cases yesterday (-25). Although we are still in a controlled stable zone, the multiplication rate rebounds to 1.003.