THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR TUESDAY 12 MAY 2020 - DAY 58 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)
Golf course re-opened yesterday
Jacqui and played 9 holes today. The golf course is in good nick.
You can see more photos from today in the Gallery.
14 day quarantine to be introduced in Spain for international travellers from Friday 15 May 2020
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy
Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.
After the good trend data for the weekend, there was an expectation of how much the data would be corrected upward. They are good because they maintain and reinforce the downward trend.
I have commented other times that I consider that the reference variable to calibrate the exit from the first wave of the crisis is the trend in infections. The rest of variables, deaths, ICU, hospitalizations, are tragic legacy of the explosion of cases in March, but they are marked by the dynamics of the epidemic. Unfortunately, they are already “written”, due to the fatal nature of this disease, once control of the hospital emergency has been resumed. On the other hand, if we have 500 cases instead of 2,000, we are ensuring the drop in deaths in the coming weeks.
Well, the trend in new infections is really well focused. 426 cases today. Four days below 700. It gives a strong push to the multiplication rate, which drops to 1.010. It's already 1.01! Total cases have increased by 1% in the last 4 days. A month ago it was 1.13. Two months ago, at the start of the climb, it was 4.4! The cases were multiplied by four every four days.
Starting today, I add a detailed graph of the number of daily cases because, fortunately, the evolution no longer looks good in the full graph, with that peak of 9,222 daily cases from March 31.
As for the distribution of cases registered in the last four days, the weight of Catalonia falls sharply in total cases, from 36.4% to 30.7% because it is released from a very bad day in which it accumulated more than half of new cases.
If we look at the numbers of cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last four days, Catalonia manages to go up to 8.1 when four days ago it was almost double. If we compare the situation today with that of four days ago for the communities with the most cases, Catalonia, Navarra, Castilla y León, La Rioja and Madrid improve, Castilla La Mancha and Aragón are stable
176 deceased (+53). Fourth day below 200. Except for a brief rebound in the next three days, it is likely that we are already heading towards the low of the 100 daily deaths. The death rate at 1.024.