THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SATURDAY 20 JUNE 2020 - DAY 97 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 3 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy
Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.
Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government
At last!! After 25 days, we finally closed the transition phase without any information on the daily evolution of the deceased.
The Ministry of Health has finally been able to show its reconstructed series of the daily evolution of the deceased by date of death and not by notification in its internal system. The external global result hardly changes; it was a simple readjustment of data between dates. So we insisted that it was a pity that death reporting had been suspended at an interval with the old system because we could have followed and accompanied the end of the epidemic.
This is the graph of the deceased newspapers in this 25-day window that we have had without official data via the Ministry. It is a total of 542 deceased. To this figure we must add another 750 that correspond to death on an earlier date, but that were not counted in the last unfrozen figure that occurred, on May 26, with 27,117. With these additions, the official recorded death toll stands at 28,315.
It is not a radical change in the total death toll. Because all this blocking of figures was not to add up the numbers of deaths in residences that had not been tested, as some erroneously predicted.
The adaptation of the official figures to the most real figures and closest to those of excess mortality (43,000 deaths) will be done progressively in the future, as Fernando Simón has promised, but not in the short term.
The death toll in the week prior to the cut of information stood at an average of 70 daily deaths. In the first week of the blackout, the average moved around 40 deaths; the following week it experienced another drop, to 25. The following one moved at 10-15. And in recent days it is below 10 every day. According to official data, yesterday was the first day since March 3 with no deaths. Yes, exit the epidemic in its mortality aspect.
This is the largest series of daily deaths, to appreciate the evolution of the last 25 days.
Output that is reflected in the multiplication rate. When the news blackout started, the multiplication rate was 1.005. Today, for the first time, the rate stands at 1.000! We must add a new decimal to see that it is not yet that exact 1 (there have been 11 deaths in the last 4 days; it is required that they be 0 deceased in that interval).
154 cases today (+11), with relevant numbers of cases in Andalusia (18) and Aragon (25). The multiplication rate by 1.002.
And once normality in data communication is recovered, we can share the table again.